The Philadelphia Fed report found that only 10,500 net new jobs were created between March and June.
This finding contrasts sharply with figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that there were 1.12 million new jobs added between March and June 2022.
Economists at the Philadelphia Regional Central Bank released their own report last week that gleans data on unemployment insurance payments.
The Philadelphia Fed said its estimates “incorporate more comprehensive and accurate employment estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage (QCEW) program to augment sample data. BLS reports” which are “published monthly on a timely basis.
The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” are released “five months later with a fuller picture” than that offered by the BLS’s “Current Employment Survey” (CES).
An expert told the Post that the stark contrast between the numbers could be explained by “the use of different methods to collect and analyze the data.”
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers its data through employer and household surveys, while the Philadelphia Fed relies on data from unemployment insurance payments,” said Mina Tadrus, CEO. of Tadrus Capital, to the Post.
“It is also possible that there are variations in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations to determine what counts as a new job.”
Tadrus told the Post that “the significant difference in their findings underscores the need for caution when interpreting and using economic data to inform decision-making.”
Economists have said that the series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve relied primarily on the BLS’s job growth numbers, which complicated the central bank’s efforts to rein in runaway inflation.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration had “lied to the American people about our economy to prop up their failed agenda.”
“Bad by a million jobs,” Scott tweeted last Friday.
The senator asks to meet the head of the BLS.
The CES surveys some 131,000 companies and government agencies representing about 670,000 job sites across the United States, according to the BLS website.
But the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” since it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” that are conducted five months after the relevant quarter, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
“Our early benchmark process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process because we do not have access to all of the data used by the BLS,” the Philadelphia Fed said in describing its methodology.
“Therefore, we accept the BLS benchmark CES estimates as the baseline employment level for each state.”
“Once QCEW data is released for periods beyond the latest CES benchmark estimates, we produce our first benchmark estimates,” the Philadelphia Fed added.